Bid No Bid Decision: A 10-Minute Scoring Sheet for Contractors

One bidder showed up on 20.1% of 725 public bid tabs reviewed in October 2026, while two bidders or fewer appeared on 42.3%. An invitation with a long distribution list can still produce a short bid opening.

Those figures come from PorchRocket’s Bid Control data (October 2026), a multistate sample with 61% of its tabs from Texas. They describe recorded competitions, not your win rate. I would use them as a reason to investigate a suitable job before dismissing it as crowded.

An owner with twelve invitations and one free evening needs a selection rule. Bid Control by PorchRocket puts the opportunities and past results together; the decision still needs your costs and crew calendar. Give each job ten minutes first. Save the takeoff hours for work that passes.

What is a bid no bid decision, and when should you make it?

A contractor’s go or no-go review authorizes estimating time for a suitable opportunity; I would decide within 24 hours of posting, or immediately when finding an older notice.

That first review reserves time to reach your bond agent and suppliers before anyone expects a signed price sheet. Read the notice and scope summary, then check how offers will be evaluated and what contract conditions you would accept. Put the submission deadline beside the meeting date and question cutoff. If the documents are inaccessible, resolve access before calling the job a fit.

I split the review into two parts. Before comparing this invitation with the others on your desk, ask whether the bidding company can qualify for the work and whether the crew can deliver it without breaking commitments already on the calendar. Then compare the office hours available this week. Missing a required license stops the review. Driving farther than you prefer lowers the score, unless the contract imposes a response time you cannot meet.

Use these stop questions before scoring:

• Can the bidding company meet the stated qualifications, including any required prequalification or references?
• Can you attend every required event and satisfy the submission requirements on time?
• Can the crew and suppliers support the required performance dates?
• Can you obtain required bonds and insurance, and carry the job’s cash demand?

Mark an unanswered stop question HOLD until a named person can find the answer, with a deadline before the next estimating session so an unresolved requirement cannot consume another evening by default. A missed mandatory event with no formal change is a pass. A bond agent’s answer due tomorrow is a hold.

Run the decision again after the site walk and firm quotes. Reopen it when an addendum changes quantities or performance dates. The fact that someone already spent four hours pricing the job should not protect it from a later no-bid decision.

Use this ten-minute agenda for the first screen. Stop at a failed requirement; mark missing evidence for follow-up.

Time budget	Review	Write down
2 minutes	Scope and eligibility	Trade fit, qualifications and any immediate stop
2 minutes	Dates and access	Due date, meeting requirement and question deadline
3 minutes	Capacity and money	Crew window, cash concerns and available price comparisons
2 minutes	Scorecard	Ratings supported by the documents already in hand
1 minute	Decision	BID, HOLD or PASS, with an owner and next action

Reading specifications and assembling an estimate take their own time. A HOLD can authorize a supplier call without authorizing a full takeoff. The bid preparation timeline helps you reserve those hours after a job earns them.

A printable bid no bid scoring sheet

Score nine criteria out of 100, pursue at 75 or more after the money and risk checks pass, and hold unresolved eligibility or cash questions.

These are my starting weights for a small trade contractor. Adjust them after reviewing your shop’s results. The buyer has its own evaluation rules.

Print this section or copy it into a worksheet. At the top, identify the agency and bid number, then record who reviewed it and who owns the decision, with the due date beside the date of your review. Put the four stop-question answers underneath. Leave space for the next review date.

Give each row a rating from 0 to 5. Use these definitions: 0 means no supporting evidence or a failed fit; 1 means poor; 2 means weak; 3 means workable; 4 means strong; 5 means a verified close match. Calculate points as weight multiplied by rating, divided by 5. A 4 on a 15-point row earns 12 points.

Selection criterion	Weight	Evidence needed for a rating of 5	Rating, 0 to 5	Points earned
Trade and scope fit	20	Your crew routinely performs the main work and can meet the stated qualifications	_____	_____
Job size against capacity and bonding	15	Crew time, working cash and any required bond capacity have room for this job	_____	_____
Distance and service coverage	8	Travel fits the route and every required response window	_____	_____
Competition	12	Comparable recent bid tabs support a credible way to compete	_____	_____
Past award prices against your costs	15	Matching scope leaves margin at a defensible competitive price	_____	_____
Payment terms and cash timing	10	Invoice timing, expected receipts and withholding fit available working cash	_____	_____
Paperwork and preparation effort	8	Named people can prepare the response inside the approved time budget	_____	_____
Mandatory meetings and access	8	Attendance and site access requirements are met or firmly scheduled	_____	_____
Renewal and repeat-work value	4	The base work pays and documented options add attractive future work	_____	_____
Total	100	All stop questions must also pass		_____

For a job with no required meeting, award the meeting row 5 once you have verified that fact. A one-time project with no renewal value gets 0 on renewals. It can still earn 96 points elsewhere.

At 60 to 74, hold only for a specific answer that could change the decision. Pass on anything below 60 once you have enough evidence to judge it. A provisional zero for missing documents calls for follow-up; a verified failure calls for a pass. Record which one applies. Do not increase the competition rating because the calendar is empty, or round 73 up to 75 because the owner likes the building.

Keep a short evidence note beside every rating. “Three comparable tabs downloaded” supports a competition rating. “Probably only two bidders” does not. If the team disagrees, compare the evidence behind the numbers before averaging opinions.

How do you read competition in past bid tabs?

Start with several comparable openings and follow each result to the award, counting distinct offers and checking what the buyer accepted before giving low participation a place in your score.

A bid tab records offers; an award record tells you what the buyer accepted. Start with the same agency and trade, then narrow by job type and size so a building addition does not become your evidence about competition for quarterly filter changes.

The TxDOT Bid Tabulations Dashboard is one public buyer example. Its page describes bids and estimates from statewide and local district lettings over the past 24 months. Use the controlling proposal and addenda for a current bid, as TxDOT directs, rather than pricing from a dashboard alone.

For your decision sheet, pull the following from each comparable record:

1. Scope and pricing basis: lump sum, unit rates, annual service or another stated basis.
2. Number of distinct bidders, with alternates kept separate from additional bidders.
3. Low submitted amount, accepted amount and any explanation for a difference.
4. Meeting restrictions, unusual qualifications or delivery dates that could explain participation.

Read the original sheet. One contractor listed on several alternate lines is still one bidder. A tab with two prices might show a base and an alternate rather than competing offers. Our counts were parsed from public records; checking the source also catches duplicate rows.

I would start with three comparable procurements if they are available. If only one exists, write “one comparable” beside the score. Broaden to a neighboring buyer only after checking that its requirements match.

Low participation earns attention, but if the buyer needs overnight coverage at a remote site and cannot move the performance dates, that short bid tab may be warning you about a cost problem. Check whether the previous solicitation produced an award at all.

An incumbent’s presence is evidence to examine, not an automatic pass. Compare the scope and your cost position. The steps for finding who won a government contract show where bid tabs and award minutes fit together.

Past award prices and the buyer’s selection rules

Compare historical prices only after matching scope and award method, because a low-price bid and a scored service proposal reward different strengths.

For covered municipal goods and services in 2026, Texas Local Government Code section 252.043 permits award to the lowest responsible bidder or the bidder providing best value, while Chapter 252 has separate construction provisions. Read the method stated in your solicitation instead of applying the goods-and-services rule to every project.

For competitive sealed proposals under that chapter, the statute connects award to price and the other published evaluation factors. That changes what belongs in your selection review. A janitorial RFP assigning substantial weight to staffing coverage needs evidence you can supply that coverage, not just a lower hourly rate.

NIGP’s best value position paper explains why buyers consider quality and risk alongside price and total cost. For a contractor deciding whether to pursue, my application is straightforward: identify the factors you can prove before spending hours writing about them.

Read past prices in their original units. If last year’s mowing tab gives a price per cycle and this year’s form asks for an annual amount, compare the required cycle count and included litter pickup before transferring any number. For an RTU replacement, check crane access and the controls scope, including any curb adapter. Divide annual service totals by the same service period before comparing them.

Keep a column for changes since the earlier procurement, because a low historical amount can become a bad comparison when this year’s buyer adds work that the earlier contractor never had to price. Supplier quotes and your production records establish today’s cost. A historical price should help you test competitiveness, rather than dictate a discount you cannot afford.

I would lower the past-price rating when comparable prices consistently sit below my cost floor. For a scored RFP, a higher price can still make sense if the evaluation gives weight to a strength you can document. Write that strength beside the rating, with the response evidence you plan to submit.

Being the only bidder does not remove the buyer’s decision. Section 252.043(f), for example, allows a municipality to reject all bids. Wait for an award before counting a win.

The money check before another estimating hour

Test the amount left after delivery costs, reserve and overhead against preparation cost; contract value alone cannot tell you whether a pursuit pays.

The October 2026 award sample had a median of $187,924 across 1,294 awards, with the middle 60 percent between $45,000 and $1,000,000, and Texas supplied 74% of that sample. Those recorded award amounts establish the range of work being bought, rather than a price target for your trade.

An award ceiling can also describe several years or shared work. Read what the amount covers before giving it a place in your forecast. The guide to what a government bid is worth goes further into that distinction.

Say a six-technician HVAC shop in Fort Worth is considering four RTU replacements at a municipal service building, with an $84,750 offer against $65,970 in delivery costs before the reserve and overhead below. Preparation takes 18 hours at a loaded internal rate of $67, plus $194 in cash expenses for travel and documents. The $67 covers estimating labor and its payroll burden; the separate overhead allowance excludes those pursuit costs.

Money line	Arithmetic	Amount
Proposed contract revenue	Four-unit replacement scope	$84,750
Delivery costs	Burdened labor, materials, equipment, subcontractors and permits	$65,970
Gross job margin	$84,750 minus $65,970	$18,780
Execution reserve	Allowance for job uncertainty	$2,540
Allocated overhead	Office and business costs assigned to this job	$3,400
Amount left before bid preparation	$18,780 minus $2,540 minus $3,400	$12,840
Cost to prepare the bid	18 times $67, plus $194	$1,400
Amount left if awarded and delivered to budget	$12,840 minus $1,400	$11,440

The gross margin is $18,780 divided by $84,750, or about 22.2%, but the amount left shrinks after the reserve and overhead take their share of the price you are offering. Keep those lines separate. The office costs money too.

For a planning test, assume a 15% chance of award. Expected value after bidding cost is 0.15 times $12,840 minus $1,400, which equals $526. At 10%, it is negative $116. At 20%, it is $1,168. None of those percentages comes from dividing one by the number of bidders.

The break-even planning probability is $1,400 divided by $12,840, or about 10.9%. Compare that threshold with evidence from similar procurements and the crew’s fit for this scope. If the evidence is weak, lower the planning probability.

I would use the lower case when history is thin. A positive calculation still needs a cash plan and a crew available to perform. Spending $1,400 is one commitment; financing materials and payroll after award is another.

How much should optional renewals count?

Let the base period support the bid decision, then give documented renewal opportunities a small score bonus without treating optional work as guaranteed revenue.

A repeat service route can deserve more attention than an isolated visit. In the worksheet, renewal value receives only 4 points. It cannot rescue a job with weak margin or put required meetings back on the calendar.

For a separate service-contract illustration, assume $46,800 in base-year revenue with an 18% contribution after annual delivery costs and allocated overhead, including the reserve you have set aside for this account. That leaves $8,424. With $1,650 in initial pursuit expense, the first-year result is $6,774.

If the documents offer two additional years, show a second line for the case where both are exercised at the same revenue and cost structure. Three times $8,424 minus $1,650 equals $23,622 before any discount for time. Keep that line labeled “all options exercised.” The base-year decision still uses $6,774.

Read who controls the option and how renewal prices are established, then check the notice deadline and any termination terms before treating another year as something you can plan the crew around. A fixed service price with rising labor costs needs a different score from an option that allows an agreed adjustment.

For as-needed work, find the minimum purchase commitment before assigning revenue. A large maximum contract amount with no committed orders should not receive the same treatment as a funded annual scope.

I would choose the smaller recurring job when its route density and first-year margin are stronger. I would choose a one-time replacement instead when it fills available installation days and pays without depending on another year.

Risk checks that can stop a public bid

Check schedule exposure, withheld cash, bonding and insurance before authorizing a pursuit; any obligation beyond your capacity can stop an otherwise high-scoring job.

Read the proposed agreement alongside the specifications. Have the superintendent check the dates and the bookkeeper check cash demand before the owner approves more estimating time. Ask the bond agent and insurance agent about the requirements they will have to support.

Risk to review	Question for the decision sheet	Evidence before proceeding
Liquidated damages	What event starts charges, at what rate, and for which days?	Contract clause and a delivery schedule with room for the exposed work
Retainage	What amount can be withheld, and what releases it?	Payment clause and a cash forecast that includes the withholding
Bonds	Can this company obtain every required bond for this scope?	Project-specific review from the agent or surety
Insurance	Are the required limits and endorsements obtainable at an included cost?	Agent’s review of the contract requirements
Schedule and supply	Can labor, materials and subcontractors meet each required date?	Crew allocation, supplier dates and subcontractor availability
Scope uncertainty	Which unknowns could consume the margin?	Site findings, written answers or a permitted pricing allowance

Liquidated damages deserve arithmetic. A 2026 Fairfax County Public Schools ramp and stair invitation specified $500 per calendar day after its stated completion deadline. Ten chargeable days at that rate would be $5,000. Apply the rate and trigger in your own contract, including any revised dates.

TxDOT’s local-government guidance defines retainage as withheld construction contract funds. Put the contract’s withholding into the cash forecast even though the money remains part of your contract price. Do not assume another buyer’s percentage.

The SBA’s bond guidance distinguishes bid, performance and payment bonds. It also describes surety evaluation and its guarantee program. Ask about the whole required package before bidding, rather than assuming an old bonding letter approves this particular job.

The Surety & Fidelity Association’s explanation of suretyship says bond protection benefits the obligee while risk remains with the principal. Bond approval therefore belongs beside your operating review. It does not replace checking whether your company can carry the work.

Insurance has its own timing. San Diego’s published vendor requirements call for proof within ten days of provisional award and separate additional insured endorsements, so I would have the agent review the requirements before bidding even when evidence is due later.

For Texas payment timing in 2026, Government Code section 2251.021 generally makes payment overdue on the 31st day after the latest of goods receipt, completion of the contracted service or invoice receipt. The 46th-day rule applies to political subdivisions whose governing bodies meet only once a month or less frequently. Build the forecast around the applicable trigger and invoice instructions, with withheld or disputed amounts identified separately.

What do paperwork and mandatory meetings cost?

Price preparation as staff hours plus cash expenses, and check required attendance before estimating; a missed eligibility event can make every later hour wasted.

Among 638 fully read Texas packets in the October 2026 data, 48.7% scheduled a pre-bid meeting or site visit and 7.7% required attendance. Both percentages use the full 638-packet denominator. The fully read packet sample leans toward construction and larger jobs.

Open the timeline before assigning a takeoff. Check whether attendance is mandatory, who may represent the bidder and how attendance is recorded. A scheduled meeting can be optional; price the travel only after checking its format and your reason to attend.

The Fairfax County Public Schools invitation cited above required attendance and sign-in at its scheduled meeting, and made absent bidders ineligible for award. I would pass after a missed mandatory event unless the buyer formally changes the requirement so the company can qualify.

Budget the visit’s time from the shop door and back. For a meeting illustration, allow 2.5 hours of driving, 1.5 hours on site and 0.5 hour recording measurements. At $67 an hour, 4.5 hours costs $301.50 before mileage or parking. With $83 in travel expenses, the visit costs $384.50.

Keep that amount inside the bid-preparation budget, rather than charging it again as a separate pursuit expense. If the visit also answers scope questions, note what estimate uncertainty it removes. I would attend an optional walk when access affects the price more than the visit costs.

Separate company documents from job-specific work. Having your insurance record ready in the company file saves one task, but this job’s pricing workbook still needs its own calculations and review before anyone copies the total into the portal. Count time for the required signatures and portal steps, then reserve time to check addenda.

Assign each preparation task to someone who is available. A short response requiring the owner’s wet signature can be harder to finish than a longer packet the office can prepare during normal hours. The guide to government bid paperwork helps identify that work before it reaches the owner’s desk.

If paperwork is the only weak row, get help with the packet. Rescore the effort. If the price loses money, faster forms will not fix the decision.

An HVAC bid worth pursuing

The Fort Worth HVAC crew’s $84,750 RTU replacement earns 81.6 points, supporting a pursuit once the bond review and crew allocation are confirmed.

Use the money worksheet’s four-unit scope and $1,400 preparation budget, with an installation crew available for the required window and enough technicians left to maintain the shop’s existing service coverage. The site is inside its normal territory. A named representative has the required meeting on the calendar.

Three comparable procurements are available for review. The owner gives competition a 3 because the records show credible rivals, then gives historical prices a 4 because comparable scope supports the shop’s cost floor. Those judgments depend on the documents, rather than the opening statistic.

The table records both worked examples’ ratings and weighted points so another estimator can check the totals.

Criterion	Weight	HVAC rating	HVAC points	Paving rating	Paving points
Trade fit	20	5	20	4	16
Size and capacity	15	4	12	2	6
Distance	8	5	8	1	1.6
Competition	12	3	7.2	2	4.8
Past prices	15	4	12	2	6
Payment and cash	10	4	8	1	2
Paperwork	8	4	6.4	2	3.2
Meetings	8	5	8	0	0
Renewal value	4	0	0	0	0
Total	100		81.6		39.6

The HVAC job earns no renewal points because it is a one-time replacement. It still clears the cutoff. That keeps the owner from inventing future maintenance revenue to justify this installation.

Before releasing the full estimate, the owner assigns supplier confirmation and contract review. If lead times change, the schedule check reopens. If the price cannot hold the worksheet’s reserve, the money review reopens.

With the bond review and crew allocation confirmed, my decision would be BID, with the estimating hours approved and a second review before signing. At the 15% planning probability, the expected result after pursuit cost was $526. That modest positive result earns investigation because the job also fits the shop’s operating capacity.

A paving bid I would pass

A 39.6-point score and a missed mandatory meeting stop the paving pursuit, even before its thin margin and working-cash shortage are resolved.

Say a three-truck paving outfit based west of Fort Worth finds a municipal lot project 108 miles from its yard. The rough offer is $176,400 against $160,020 in delivery costs. The owner has already committed the main crew to another job during part of the required performance window.

The posted documents required a meeting that took place before the owner found the invitation. No formal change offers another attendance opportunity. That fails the eligibility check. The team stops preparing a bid and records the reason.

The other numbers explain why I would leave this one alone even if the buyer later reopened attendance. Revenue minus delivery costs leaves $16,380, about 9.3% of revenue before reserve, overhead and pursuit expense. Mobilization and travel need further review. The largest recent comparable prices sit near the shop’s cost floor.

The bookkeeper’s cash forecast shows a $67,000 peak funding need against $18,500 available for this project, leaving a $48,500 gap the owner would have to fund before the job could proceed. Financing is unconfirmed. A better competition score would not authorize the job.

In the filled-in sheet, strong trade fit earns 16 points. It cannot erase the cash problem or missed meeting. The distant site and crowded crew calendar also keep the capacity and distance scores low.

My decision would be PASS. Record the agency for earlier monitoring next cycle, along with the missed event and funding gap. A future job closer to the yard with a different schedule can receive a fresh review. This invitation does not need another evening of estimating.

Track decisions beside your win rate

Keep an opportunity log and a submission log, then compare awards, preparation spending and delivered margin before changing your pursuit cutoff or weights.

The opportunity log records every review, including passes. The submission log records what you sent and what happened. Keeping both lets the owner see whether selection saved hours or merely reduced activity.

Preserve the score recorded on the decision date. Add a dated revision when new information arrives. Replacing the original score after a loss hides what the team knew when it approved the pursuit.

Record	Fields to keep	Decision it supports
Opportunity	Agency, scope, initial score, gates, status and reason	Which invitations deserve attention next month
Pursuit effort	Screening time, estimate hours, visit cost and outside preparation expense	What each type of bid costs to prepare
Submission result	Submitted date, pending or decided status, award and rejection reason	Where bids succeed or fail
Delivery result	Revenue, final costs, cash demand and schedule performance	Whether winning this type of work pays

For a tracking illustration, review 30 invitations and pass on 20. Submit 10. Eight submissions receive decisions: two awards and six losses. Two remain pending. The decided-submission win rate is 2 divided by 8, or 25%, equivalent to four decided bids per award.

Keep the 20 passes outside that denominator. Keep screening time on those passes inside total pursuit spending. If a submitted bid is rejected for a packet error and the procurement proceeds to award, count that outcome among the six losses and tag its cause.

Track canceled procurements separately from competitive losses. Keep their preparation costs in the spending log. The bid win-rate guide explains the denominator choices and why bidder counts cannot supply your shop’s probability of winning.

Review wins after delivery too. If the win rate rises while delivered margin falls, inspect which jobs earned the higher scores and whether their estimates included the costs that showed up once the crew started work. A pass based on insufficient cash can be a sound decision even if another contractor later wins at a good price.

I would review the first ten decided submissions before changing the weights, while correcting individual errors as soon as they surface. If distant work repeatedly misses budget, move points from another row to the travel row so the weights still total 100. Keep the revised sheet’s date. Tighten the price check if delivered jobs keep falling below the margin approved at bid time.

Bid Control picks the fits first

Bid Control puts trade and area matches first, with past winners and prices beside the opportunities, so your ten-minute review starts with evidence.

Use the scorecard beside the board. Your crew capacity and cost floor still come from your shop; PorchRocket supplies the public-work information and help needed to make a better selection and prepare the response.

• Bid Board brings suitable city, county and school work to your phone, with best fits first and new opportunities every morning.
• Past winners and award prices give you records to compare with the current scope before paying for a takeoff.
• Early signs from board minutes, budgets and capital plans show work being discussed or funded before the bid posts, giving you another chance to plan crew capacity.
• Due dates, bid papers and addenda stay together, so a changed meeting or performance requirement can trigger a fresh decision.
• Bid Builder walks through the forms and reuses your Bid Passport company information, reducing repeated office work on the jobs you choose.
• Bid Team works with you on selection and preparation, handling forms, addenda, notary pages, portal accounts and deadlines while you make the final call on your number, sign and send.

Bid Team costs less than any bid writer, bid consultant or in-house bid coordinator, and less than any other done-for-you bid service. The membership covers as many bids as you want. Selection still comes first.

Talk to Rafael about the work your crew wants on a free 15-minute call. Bring a current invitation and the constraint that most often stops you, such as cash, crew availability or time at the desk.

Spend the next estimating evening on a job that earns it.